HM TREASURY PRESS NOTICE. For release at a time to be briefed in advance to selected Sunday newspapers.

HM Treasury today confirmed that the period of speculation preceding the autumn Budget now exceeds the Budget itself in duration, word count and, according to an internal review, emotional range. The department announced a package of efficiencies intended to streamline the rumour cycle, which has run every autumn since records began and which the Treasury describes as “broadly in line with expectations, which were low”.

The review found that the 2024 pre-Budget period lasted eleven weeks and generated an estimated 400,000 words of commentary. The Chancellor’s statement lasted fifty-four minutes. The Treasury accepts that, on these figures, the statement is better understood as a follow-up.

Department for Things We Might Do

From Monday, all unconfirmed fiscal intentions will be handled by a new Department for Things We Might Do, based on the third floor at 1 Horse Guards Road, next to the room where the kettle is. The department will have a staff of nineteen, none of whom will be able to say what they are working on, and a ministerial budget of “to be confirmed, possibly lower”.

“Previously, a proposal to freeze a threshold would be floated by someone senior, denied by someone slightly more senior, and then floated again on the Thursday by someone nobody could identify,” said Helen Marsden, Director of Pre-Announcement Strategy. “We have now put this on a proper footing. A single office will be responsible for ensuring the idea has been both considered and not considered by close of business.”

The Will They, Won’t They Line

The Treasury will also launch a dedicated helpline for members of the public, journalists and backbenchers who wish to know whether a particular tax will rise. Callers will be offered five options. Option one is for taxes that will definitely not rise. Option two is for taxes that will definitely not rise, in the sense currently understood. Option three is for a tax nobody has mentioned yet, which the Treasury would prefer to hear about now rather than in the second week of November.

Callers who select none of the options will be placed in a queue and played an instrumental version of a song about the economy, licensed at some expense.

“We took 11,000 calls in the pilot week. Of those, around 10,400 asked whether we could confirm something we had ruled out, and about 600 asked whether ruling it out was the same as ruling it out. We have put extra staff on the second group.”
Graham Pickering, Head of Helpline Operations

Taxes Currently Resting

The Treasury also issued updated guidance on the status of measures previously excluded by ministers. Any tax rise ruled out in September should, with immediate effect, be regarded as “resting”. A resting tax is not scheduled to rise, has not been abandoned, and should not be taken to have any view on the matter. Officials stressed that a tax may rest for as long as it needs to and may be recalled to service at short notice, ideally on a Wednesday.

The guidance distinguishes between a rise that has been “ruled out”, a rise that has been “ruled out for now”, and a rise that “the Chancellor has no plans to introduce”. The third category is considered the most restful of all, and officials noted that it has historically been the first to wake up.

The Budget Itself

Responding to concerns that the changes might diminish the importance of the Budget, the Treasury said it remained committed to delivering one. From this autumn, however, the announcement will be made available as an optional epilogue for those who wish to see how the speculation turned out. Attendance is not required, and a summary of the main measures will be sent to anyone who feels they have already read them.

“People often say that nobody is surprised by the Budget any more,” said Marsden. “We would put it differently. By the day itself, everybody has been surprised so many times that the real thing has to work rather hard to compete.”

Notes

1. The Treasury does not comment on speculation, and will not be commenting on this notice, which it has written itself.

2. A senior figure close to the process, who asked not to be named, said the notice was “broadly accurate but premature”. The senior figure was in the room when it was drafted.

3. The helpline is open from 9am to 5pm. Callers wishing to ask about the Budget after it has been delivered should hold the line, as the Treasury expects to have formed a view by spring.